Election 2013, Volume 2, Issue 7: Let's Try a Mayoral Flow Chart

[naomikritzer]

So, if you're voting for mayor in Minneapolis, you have 35 candidates, 8 of them plausible and serious, and you need to pick three in ranked preference. I'm going to try to game out a couple of options for you.

Just as a quick refresher (for me -- I want to be able to look at this while I'm writing this), here are the eight major candidates:

1. Dan Cohen (stadium-hating casino-promoter)
2. Betsy Hodges (progressive DFLer)
3. Mark Andrew (corporate DFLer and greenwashing marketing stooge)
4. Don Samuels (passionate and slightly odd Northside Council Rep)
5. Cam Winton (socially liberal Republican)
6. Stephanie Woodruff (Independence-party endorsed fiscal conservative businesswoman)
7. Jackie Cherryhomes (former Sayles-Belton crony, will never live down Block E)
8. Bob Fine (Park Board guy, hardly anyone knows he's running)

So let's say that this is you:

I am totally infuriated about the stupid Vikings stadium deal. I want a mayor who will cancel the deal or at the very LEAST I want a mayor who didn't vote for it or support it in any way.

Anti-Stadium candidates include Dan Cohen, Betsy Hodges, Stephanie Woodruff, and Cam Winton. Dan Cohen wants to actually trash the deal, so if you hate it THAT MUCH, maybe do (1) Dan Cohen, (2) Betsy Hodges, (3) either Stephanie or Cam, depending on how you feel about Republicans.

Got the idea? OK. Let's see what other scenarios I can come up with.

I'm your basic Minneapolis progressive. Tell me who the DFL ought to have endorsed so I can vote for that person.

1. Betsy Hodges. 2. Don Samuels. 3. Mark Andrew. (I still think I personally would pick Cam Winton over Mark Andrew, but I'm not going to claim that the DFL would have gone for Cam over Mark.)

I'm a Green Socialist Lefty. FIGHT THE MAN. Who should I vote for?

Well, you might want to avail yourself of the minor candidates list, but let me warn you that the people listing themselves as Greens are flaky and disorganized at best (there is an endorsement process for the Green Party! neither bothered to take advantage of it) and the Socialist is of the "Cuba is a worker's paradise" variety of socialist rather than a "health care, $20/hour jobs, and pet unicorns for all!" variety of socialist. So I would suggest that you vote (1) Jayme Kelly (Stop Foreclosures Now) -- she's the woman who's on the brink of losing her house; hilariously, running for mayor actually succeeded in bringing a bunch of attention to her plight; (2) Troy Benjegerdes, the solar-panel-building Bitcoin supporter, and then (3) Betsy Hodges, because you should pick one of the serious contenders for your third pick and you're not seriously thinking you'd vote for Mark Andrew, are you?

I'm a Republican/I'm not actually a Republican because there are too many assholes in the party, but I'm a fiscally-conservative Independent, and I want someone who won't spend money on stuff I think is stupid. Also, I think almost all the stuff government spends money on other than snow plowing and pothole filling is stupid.

This one's easy. 1. Cam Winton; 2. Stephanie Woodruff; 3. Bob Fine.

I'm a Libertarian.

I'm going to send you to the "minor candidates" list because Christopher Zimmerman's Facebook page is totally awesome. 1. Christopher Robin Zimmerman. 2. Stephanie Woodruff. 3. Cam Winton.

I want a woman to be mayor.

1. Betsy Hodges. 2. Stephanie Woodruff. 3. SUCK IT UP AND VOTE FOR A DUDE, YOU DO NOT WANT JACKIE CHERRYHOMES.

I LOVE the Vikings deal and want to REWARD the supporters of it. GO VIKES.

Sure. 1. Don Samuels. 2. Mark Andrew. 3. Jackie Cherryhomes. (Mark and Jackie say that they would have supported the stadium deal if they'd been on the Council; Don Samuels voted for it.)

If I failed to cover your personal concern, you could chime in in the comments section and I'll see what I can do!

Election 2013 Index of Posts

Comments

[naomikritzer]

I guess that's not exactly a flow chart, is it? That's what happens when I post after midnight.

[billkahn.livejournal.com]

More symptomatic of dissociative identity disorder.

[crz (from livejournal.com)]

Thanks for the plug (again)!

As the token libertarian, I probably should recommend myself #1, and then suggest flipping a coin between Christopher Clark and Kurtis Hanna for the other two slots....but I won't. ;-)

[arkuat]

I'm a Hodges voter, but I am seriously considering Hanna for my 2nd choice even if he does say stupid stuff about community education etc as Naomi pointed out in her write-up of him. This is because I favor Hodges so much over the other seven "leading candidates" or whatever you want to call them that I really don't want to cast my 2nd and 3rd for anyone who actually has a chance of winning. Not when there are so many others to choose from! Hanna is talking about a lot of stuff that I passionately agree with him about, even though almost none of those issues are city issues. Cannabis is a state and federal issue; intellectual-property reform and the erosion of the Fourth Amendment (aka American Stasi) are pretty strictly federal issues.

Clark gives me bad vibes somehow. You, CRZ, might get my 3rd choice if I can't persuade myself that some other candidate is preferable to you before the election. (I'm a former left-libertarian who became a tax-and-regulate lefty liberal somewhere around March 2003.)

[coho29.livejournal.com]

There's a clear difference between Hodges and Andrew on the idea of a publicly-financed Convention Center hotel. Hodges opposes it, comparing it to Block E. Andrew said Hodges has "the disease of a small vision" for not supporting it; he later said the mayor has an "obligation to attract people to come to our city and fill up our hotel rooms." (Personally, I'm with Betsy here. Mark's hyperbole seems intended to distract from a bad cost-benefit analysis.)

[naomikritzer]

There's a certain personal appeal to a Convention Center hotel if it were going to be larger than the RadishTree out in west Bloomington -- Convergence is running out of space kind of dramatically, and if it were designed really well this might be a great place to move to.

But. I do not view this as a good use of public dollars. (Although now I'm fantasizing about a world in which Mark Andrew realized he could pander to the fandom voting block and suggested that the Convention Center hotel could be designed to meet the needs of fandom, with really nice poolside party rooms, wide hallways, 2x the standard allotment of elevators, and programming rooms with soundproof dividers. "The next big Comic-Con could be based in Minneapolis," Mark Andrews said, in my fantasy pitch for this particular piece of public investment. "And, hey, you know how you've looked with envy at the big costume parade they do down at DragonCon? Convergence happens over the 4th of July weekend -- move that con to downtown Minneapolis, and you could have a costume parade on Nicollet Mall!")

(Note to people reading quickly -- he didn't actually say any of that.)

[g30f1sh.livejournal.com]

I'm not sure what you mean about the DFL "should have" endorsed. At the city convention Mark Andrew had the most votes, and Betsy got her supporters to leave so there was no quorum. So of you mean "should have" in the sense that Mark Andrew is a tool and no one should endorse him, fine. But the DFL came close to actually doing it.

[naomikritzer]

Oh, yeah, thanks for the clarification. That's exactly what I meant: they should have endorsed Betsy because Mark's a tool.

[ken bradley (from livejournal.com)]

Sadly, I am already married otherwise I would post "marry me". You are one funny lady!

[naomikritzer]

Also married and not looking for a replacement, but thanks!

[hozed.livejournal.com]

My first choice for political principle was 'Green Libertarian Farmer', but apparently the farmer can't actually say he's a farmer because the party that almost endorsed a tool but has no farmers owns the rights to farmer. (at least in Minnesota election ballots)

[naomikritzer]

I had meant to note somewhere that you were going to put "Farmer" in your description and were prevented from doing so. You could've been a Green Libertarian Censored, though, Bob Carney-Style (he was an "Independent Progressive Censored" because they wouldn't let him be an Independent Progressive Republican a few years back.)

Here's what I don't understand: they objected to "Farmer" but not to "Green" or "Libertarian"?

[helen daniels (from livejournal.com)]

As someone who is car free I'm concerned about the future and safety of bicycling and mass transit in Minneapolis. Who's got the best stance on these issues? So far I have Betsy and Don down but I'm having trouble picking a third...

[debra keefer ramage (from livejournal.com)]

Bob Carney, Jr. Check out his website for links to the Transit Revolution.

[naomikritzer]

It really depends on how you want to use that third pick. I would recommend that if you want to make a statement-type vote, it makes more sense to use that as your first vote -- Bob Carney is probably going to be dropped in the first round of counting, he's not a serious contender to win.

So if your first two picks are Betsy and Don, let's look at your remaining "could plausibly win" choices:

Dan Cohen
Mark Andrew
Cam Winton
Stephanie Woodruff
Jackie Cherryhomes
Bob Fine

and think about what scenario could lead to Betsy and Don both being dropped.

If it's NOT Betsy vs. Someone in the final round, and it's NOT Don vs. Someone in the final round, it's probably going to be one of the following:

* Mark Andrew vs. Cam Winton
* Mark Andrew vs. Dan Cohen
* Dan Cohen vs. Cam Winton
* Mark Andrew vs. Jackie Cherryhomes

I am not a Mark Andrew fan but he DID play a big role in the Greenway and he's probably going to do pro-bike stuff. Cam Winton talks about how he likes bike lanes but bikeways are too expensive and we shouldn't build them; he is definitely not your guy, if you want to see good transit and bikeway development. Dan Cohen's got exactly nothing about transit or bikes on his website; he apparently endorsed Bob Carney's "Transit Revolution" plan, but I think it's reasonable to say that it's sure not a priority for him. (If you want to read Carney's plan, it's here in PDF format and reeeeeeeeeally long. Skip to page 11 to read the summary.) Jackie Cherryhomes talks about "investing in public transit" and "creating bike routes" without any specifics.

I'm going to say that if your first two picks are Betsy and Don, probably Mark Andrews is your #3 pick. If you adore Bob Carney's Transit Revolution plan, make him your #1, followed by Betsy and Don, unless you really take Dan Cohen's endorsement of it seriously -- in which case I guess I'd go with Dan Cohen as your #3 pick.

[debra keefer ramage (from livejournal.com)]

The Greens did not endorse a Mayoral candidate because the only candidate running as a Green, Doug Mann, declared too late for their rather early endorsing convention. Doug Mann can be accused of a few things, maybe, but not flakiness. He is very serious, and he is the only candidate who has actually done something - something quite amazing - to try to stop the Vikings Stadium "deal". So if you are a serious stadium denier, you should probably vote Doug Mann - Dan Cohen - Betsy Hodges. Unless you hate casinos.

[naomikritzer]

It appears that they held one in February (which is quite early) but a second one in May, and were actively looking for a mayoral candidate to endorse.

If you didn't know six months ago that you wanted the job -- when the job in question is "Mayor of Minneapolis" -- you're flaky.

You do make a good point about his lawsuit, though; voting (1) Doug Mann - (2) Dan Cohen - (3) Betsy Hodges would be a pretty reasonable slate for someone who was absolutely furious about the stadium deal.

[jonathan healy (from livejournal.com)]

Doug Mann is a joke. He keeps spamming Facebook groups and trying to rile up racial tension in North Mpls.

[matthew saint-germain (from livejournal.com)]

What makes Samuels odd?

[naomikritzer]

His long, impassioned, somewhat-self-aggrandizing story about personally confronting a guy who was peeing on the street, and his regular revisiting of this particular anecdote: kinda odd. (Here's the story: http://www.startribune.com/opinion/commentaries/172892481.html )

(The "envelope with a couple grand" story is also a little odd -- mostly just because you would expect someone who's been in politics for years both to have a little less naivete about what you'll get from certain groups when you give them what they want, AND because you'd expect someone who's been in politics for years to have enough of an ear for what sounds sketchy to not make legit donations sound like corruption when he's on the receiving end.)

[matthew saint-germain (from livejournal.com)]

I wasn't asking dickishly, he came to speak to our political philosophy class at the U and was pretty impressive. I would agree, however, that an anecdote about stopping a dude peeing is a bit odd, considering he's got probably way better stories to tell. Just hearing him talk about the closure of North was a pretty powerful deal.

[naomikritzer]

I agree that he is impressive -- he's my second choice, after Betsy. I think he'd be a decent mayor. He's just also a little odd.

[coho29.livejournal.com]

Another scenario: I love RT Rybak and agree with everything he's done. More, please! For that type of person, I'd say (1) Don Samuels (2) Betsy Hodges (3) ??? . Samuels and Hodges have been two of Rybak's closest policy allies on the City Council. Andrew may be more like Rybak in terms of Minneapolis brand promotion style, but those two have clashed on ed-reform and pension-reform policy during the campaign.

[naomikritzer]

Oh, good scenario!! And ITA with your first two picks. For pick #3...I'd say it's Jackie Cherryhomes vs Mark Andrew and I'm not sure who'd be closer.

[cdgarden.livejournal.com]

I haven't heard a scenario for "I'm actually serious about taking the lead on the problem of racial disparities." I know the City does not have a specific program or all that many dollars allocated in the goal area "Many People, One Minneapolis" and that the achievement gap is only something that can be influenced by the City. This is the biggest embarrassment we have in Minneapolis (and the metro area as a whole). That being said, of those with real commitment and vision, what's the scenario?

[jonathan healy (from livejournal.com)]

Actually, that's why there has been such a focus on education in this mayoral race. Education is the key to solving racial disparity.

[john ferman (from livejournal.com)]

Thanks for the flow chart. I am undecided and decided to weight the lit left at our door and then used the weights to assess the extent a candidate would be beholden to their moneybags. The results in reverse order are:
Fine 12 g
Samuels 29 g
Cherryhomes 49 g
Hodges 64 g
Andrew 83 g
Guess I'll have to look for more data.

[naomikritzer]

This is an awesome metric (and one I didn't really have access to, since I live in St. Paul...)

No mailings from Cam Winton or Stephanie Woodruff?

[gail f (from livejournal.com)]

Which ones would be anti TFA and willing to renegotiate the whole SWLRT/co-location mess?
Thanks for this 'spreadsheet' post it's helpful

[naomikritzer]

TFA=Teach For America?

None of them are exactly anti-TFA. I found several writeups of a interesting forum held on education issues, along with information on their websites. A summary:

* Mark Andrew is in favor of TFA, but was against it before he was for it. It seems to depend on who's asking.
* Betsy Hodges' stance on TFA is that it is "neither the problem nor the solution."
* Don Samuels thinks TFA is AWESOME.
* Cam Winton loves TFA.
* Stephanie Woodruff's opinion wasn't clear but she wants to buy all the kids iPads.
* Bob Fine is actually anti-TFA, I'd say, contradicting my earlier statement. Although he also had a quote somewhere to the effect of, "if you people care so much about education, why do you always ignore the school board race? Maybe you should try paying attention during school board years!"
* Jackie Cherryhomes' opinion wasn't clear.
* Dan Cohen's education policy is "jobs for absent dads." I don't think he cares about TFA either way.

So, if you HATE TFA and want an anti-TFA mayor, I'd suggest (1) Bob Fine; (2) Betsy Hodges; (3) Mark Andrew. Although you could argue that Mark Andrew has stronger ties to the teacher's union and the teacher's union hates TFA so his lip service to TFA was probably just pandering to get elected and you could trust him to be anti-TFA once in office....but I think the bottom line on his "against it"/"for it" jumping around is that this is not an issue he cares about very much.

If you LOVE TFA then you'll want Don Samuels and Cam Winton.

[foolsgoldxo.livejournal.com]

Honest question here. What are your misgivings about Mark Andrew? All replies welcome, thx.

[naomikritzer]

When I was first researching candidates, I had some specific questions about how they'll handle police misconduct. This hasn't been a central issue in the campaign but it's an ongoing problem in Minneapolis (and was in the news in late August).

I left everyone a note on their facebook page, and if they didn't get back to me, I tried e-mail. Just about everyone did get back to me, or had a staffer get back to me, sooner or later -- except for Mark Andrew. Mark had been asked a similar question by another commentor on his fb page earlier in the month and had said, "Please send me a private message, I'd love to discuss this." I noted in the thread that I was sorry he hadn't discussed it on the page because I had the same question; the guy in the thread said that he'd followed up privately but all Mark had done was spew a few talking points with no substance and then stop responding.

So -- here's the thing. I appreciate candidates who are willing to embrace specifics. That's not always possible, but sometimes it is, and that's important to me. Because especially in an overwhelmingly liberal city like Minneapolis, everyone's going to be citing the same principles. Everyone wants to close the achievement gap, everyone wants to reduce poverty, everyone wants affordable housing, everyone loves the parks and thinks bikes are awesome and adores small businesses with good-paying jobs that grow the economy and so on and so forth. The devil is always in the details, you know? So give me at least some details so I know where you actually stand.

He has gotten a pile of donations from corporations I don't like very much and his willingness to reverse his stance on TFA (he was against it; now he's for it) to suit the political winds makes me very hesitant to trust that he'd bite the hand that fed him.